Taiwan Is Quietly Preparing for a World Without a US Safety Net

A $14 billion US arms package is frozen, Trump and Xi Jinping are on their third summit of the year, and Washington’s most loyal partner in Asia is rethinking how much it can count on American help.

TAIPEI / WASHINGTON – October 11, 2026

Taiwan celebrated its national day on Saturday with fighter-jet flyovers above the presidential palace in Taipei and a speech from President Lai Ching-te calling the island “a city upon a hill.” Officials in Taipei, though, are paying closer attention to a schedule in Washington. Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have met twice this year, and they are set to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and at the G20 in Miami in December.

Each meeting has brought the US and China closer on trade. Each has also left Taiwan less sure where it stands.

Track the Trade War Behind the Taiwan Question

The US-China bargain Taipei fears is being negotiated in tariffs and energy deals first. Watch both as they move:

Live Trump Tariff Tracker →
Every tariff move as it lands, the clearest read on how far the US-China trade truce has gone.

Live Oil Price Tracker →
Brent and WTI in real time, because energy purchases are a key part of the deals Trump and Xi are trading.

The “G2” Moment: What Trump Means by It

The phrase that worries Taipei came from Trump himself. After meeting Xi in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025, he gave the talks a “12 out of 10” and called it a “G2” meeting.

Economist C. Fred Bergsten coined the “Group of Two” in 2005 to describe the world’s two largest economies sharing responsibility for global stability. Trump’s version has a sharper edge for Taiwan: it suggests the big questions in Asia get settled between Washington and Beijing, with Taipei outside the room.

That is the core of the Trump China pivot: tariff truces, coal purchases, a new US-China AI dialogue and plenty of public warmth. A once-firm line on Taiwan has, for now, become one more item on the table. The same trade-first approach shaped what partners walked away with at the G20 trade talks in Milwaukee, where tariffs and deals set the agenda. 

The Taiwan Arms Sale Delay

The clearest sign of the shift is a record $14 billion arms package that Congress has approved but the president has not signed off on.

Before his May trip to Beijing, Trump said he would discuss Taiwan arms sales with Xi, and he has called the weapons a possible bargaining chip. After the Beijing summit, the package was paused. It was still undecided after Xi’s state visit to Washington in late September.

In September, the South China Morning Post reported that the administration was weighing a delay until after the November APEC summit, and possibly until the end of the year. One source said Trump had floated pushing the decision out even further but “faced very loud opposition from hawks.”

Taipei is staying calm. “We haven’t received any notice of any changes to sales or our cooperation,” Defense Minister Wellington Koo said on September 29. US Ambassador to China David Perdue also said policy was unchanged, and Bloomberg reported on October 9 that US officials were again moving to reassure Taiwan.

Analysts note a legal wrinkle. Under the 1982 Six Assurances, the US promised not to set an end date for arms sales to Taiwan and not to consult Beijing about them. A Trump-Xi discussion of a pending sale comes close to breaking that second promise. In June, a US diplomat said Trump supports the Six Assurances, but gave no timeline for the arms package.

Markets have watched this kind of linkage before. Investors have learned to treat Trump’s hardest positions as negotiable, a pattern we broke down in the TACO trade and why Wall Street keeps betting on a reversal. Taipei’s fear is that Taiwan’s security is being priced the same way. 

The Word That Matters: “Oppose”

Beijing wants more than a pause. Xi calls Taiwan “the core of China’s core interests,” and China’s own readout of the September summit says he urged the US to “adhere to the correct position of opposing ‘Taiwan independence.'”

For decades, Washington has said it “does not support” Taiwan independence. Switching to “opposes” would be a real change, because it would put the US on Beijing’s side of the question. The White House fact sheet from the September summit did not mention Taiwan at all, and there is no public sign the US agreed to the new wording.

Trump has not helped Taipei’s nerves. In May he said he had no interest in fighting a war over Taiwan, and he told Fox News, “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent.”

US Strategic Ambiguity, Without the Strategy

For decades, US strategic ambiguity has meant Washington never says for sure whether it would defend Taiwan, deterring both a Chinese invasion and a Taiwanese independence push. President Biden stretched that line by saying several times the US would defend the island.

Under Trump, the ambiguity is back, but to many in Taipei it no longer looks like a deterrent. It looks like a bargaining chip.

So, will the US defend Taiwan under Trump? No one outside the Oval Office can say. Here is what we know:

• The Taiwan Relations Act still legally commits the US to help Taiwan defend itself.
• Existing arms deliveries continue. Taiwan says nothing already agreed has changed.
• New weapons approvals are on hold while trade talks continue.
• The president has said publicly that he does not want a war over the island.

Allies elsewhere have seen the same transactional streak. Trump’s push to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” and the import ban on Canadian alcohol and motorcycles show how even close neighbors get treated as bargaining partners. 

How Taiwan Is Preparing to Go It Alone

Taiwan’s answer has been to spend more on its own defense.

Taiwan total defense spending (incl. special budgets & Coast Guard)

Year	NT$ billion	% of GDP	Status
2023	586.3	~2.4%	Enacted
2024	606.8	~2.5%	Proposed (record at the time)
2025	647.0	2.45%	Proposed
2026	949.5	3.32%	Cabinet proposal (Aug 2025)
2027	1,122.5 (~US$35B)	3.01%	Cabinet proposal (Aug 2026), pending legislature

In August, Lai’s Cabinet proposed a record NT1.12trillion(aboutUS35 billion) defense budget for 2027. That is the first time Taiwan’s defense budget has passed NT$1 trillion, and it works out to about 3% of GDP. The Presidential Office wants to reach 5% by 2030. Spending is moving toward drones, air and missile defense, long-range strike weapons and larger stockpiles of munitions, which are the kinds of tools Taiwan could use for an extended period without outside help.

There is a catch. Taiwan’s own politics have tied much of that money to Washington.

Special arms budget, proposed vs. passed (May 8, 2026)

Item	NT$ billion
Proposed by Lai government	1,250 (~US$40B)
Passed: arms already approved by US Congress	300
Passed: contingent on US letter of offer (LOA)	480
Passed total	780 (~US$24.8B)

In May, the opposition-controlled legislature cut Lai’s proposed NT$1.25 trillion (about 40billion)specialarmsbudgetdowntoNT780 billion. Lawmakers removed funding for domestic drone production, integrated air defense and command systems. They also made NT$480 billion of what remained depend on a formal US letter of offer. “No LOA, no budget,” said KMT lawmaker Niu Hsu-ting.

That means a delay in Washington now ripples through Taipei. If the US doesn’t move forward with the sales, much of Taiwan’s arms money can’t be spent.

What Taiwanese Voters Want

More than 80% of Taiwanese want to keep the status quo. Support for moving quickly toward independence or unification is in the single digits.

Local experts say there is no substitute for Washington. Jyun-yi Lee of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research told The Irish Times that Taiwan’s planning has always assumed it may have to fight alone, but it still needs American weapons to do so.

What to Watch Next

• November: Trump-Xi talks at APEC in Shenzhen, and Taiwan’s local elections, which will test whether voters reward Lai’s defense spending. Trump’s own calendar is crowded before then, with a red-state rally blitz ahead of the midterms.
• December: The G20 in Miami and the reported earliest window for the $14 billion arms decision.
• The wording: Any US statement that it “opposes” Taiwan independence would be the biggest change in US Taiwan policy in decades.

Timing matters on the other side of the world too. Trump has tied the end of the Iran war to the midterms, a claim we examined in his “right after the midterms” timeline, which shows how domestic politics can set the pace for foreign policy decisions.

Taiwan has not been abandoned. But it is no longer counting on Washington the way it used to, and it is spending to prepare for that.

For more coverage of Trump’s foreign policy and its global fallout, visit DonaldTrump.Coach.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the US defend Taiwan under Trump?

There is no definite answer. The Taiwan Relations Act requires the US to help Taiwan defend itself, but it does not require US troops to fight. Trump has said he has no interest in a war over Taiwan, and he has not repeated Biden’s promise to defend the island.

What is “G2” in Trump’s China policy?

“G2,” or “Group of Two,” describes the US and China managing global issues together as the two largest powers. Trump used the term after meeting Xi in Busan in October 2025. Critics say it sidelines allies like Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

Is there a Trump-Xi Taiwan deal?

No formal deal on Taiwan has been announced. Beijing says Xi asked the US to “oppose” Taiwan independence, while the White House summary of the September summit did not mention Taiwan. The $14 billion arms package remains paused.

Why is the Taiwan arms sale delayed?

Trump paused the $14 billion package after his May 2026 Beijing summit, while he works on trade and tariff deals with China. Reports suggest a decision may not come until after the APEC and G20 summits late this year.

What is US strategic ambiguity on Taiwan?

It is Washington’s long-standing policy of not saying whether it would defend Taiwan militarily. It aims to deter a Chinese attack without encouraging Taiwan to declare formal independence.

How is Trump’s Taiwan policy different from Biden’s?

Biden said several times the US would defend Taiwan and kept arms sales flowing. Trump treats Taiwan as part of a wider bargain with China, has linked arms sales to his talks with Xi, and has said he does not want Taiwan to “go independent.”

How much is Taiwan spending on defense?

Taiwan’s Cabinet has proposed a record NT1.12trillion(aboutUS35 billion) for 2027, about 3% of GDP, with a goal of 5% by 2030.

References & Sources

1. Denis Staunton, “Taiwan fears for US support as Trump and Xi prepare for fresh talks,” The Irish Times, Oct. 11, 2026.
2. “US Moves to Reassure Taiwan as Trump-Xi Ties Stall Big Arms Deal,” Bloomberg, Oct. 9, 2026.
3. Associated Press, “A $14 billion U.S. arms deal to Taiwan is stalled,” via Fortune, Sept. 29, 2026.
4. “Trump-Xi Summit 2026: What They Agreed On, and What Was Said About Taiwan,” CommonWealth Magazine, Sept. 29, 2026.
5. “US weighs delaying Taiwan arms sales until after APEC and G20 summits,” South China Morning Post, Sept. 19, 2026.
6. “Trump backs ‘Six Assurances’ to Taiwan but no arms sale timeline, US diplomat says,” The Star / SCMP, June 28, 2026.
7. “Trump-Xi meeting: Could China, US form a ‘G2’?,” Al Jazeera, May 12, 2026.
8. “Taiwan’s legislature passes reduced special defense budget,” Domino Theory, May 2026.
9. “Taiwan Raises 2027 Defense Budget to Record,” Army Recognition, Aug. 2026; “Cabinet approves 2027 budget proposal, defense spending at 3.01% of GDP,” CNA via GlobalSecurity, Aug. 20, 2026.
10. “US State Department says China threat to Taiwan has ‘grown considerably’,” Vision Times, Aug. 25, 2026.
11. “Taiwan’s 2026 defence spending to touch 3.32% of GDP,” Tribune India, Aug. 2025; “Taiwan’s defense spending to reach NT$647 billion, 2.45% of GDP in 2025,” CNA via GlobalSecurity; “Taiwan’s defense spending to reach record NT$606.8 billion in 2024,” CNA via GlobalSecurity.
12. “Group of Two,” Wikipedia; “Trump-Xi 2026 Summits,” CSIS.