Survey: 60% of Israelis Fear Civil War Risk as Internal Tensions Escalate

A landmark survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) has confirmed what many Israeli officials and analysts have long feared: the country is edging closer to a breaking point from within. Six in ten Israelis, 60%, say there is a real and present danger of physical bloodshed and violence inside the country, the kind that would constitute a civil war. This is not a fringe alarm. It is the measured verdict of a broad Israeli public living through years of accumulated fracture.

The finding, drawn from the JPPI’s Annual Israeli Society Index for 2026, arrives at a moment when the country is simultaneously fighting a multifront military campaign, navigating a fragile ceasefire tied to Trump’s Iran deal, and watching the Trump and Putin Ukraine standoff add fresh uncertainty to the global security order that Israel depends on.

A Society Divided Against Itself

The numbers paint a stark portrait. While 55% of Israelis name internal polarization as the single most dangerous threat to the state’s continued existence, only 23% point to Iran’s nuclear program, and just 18% cite the Palestinian conflict. Internal division has overtaken every external enemy in the public’s threat perception, an extraordinary reversal for a country that has long defined itself through existential security challenges.

JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern summarized the contradiction at the heart of Israel’s current condition: “Israeli society does indeed show resilience, determination, and optimism, with the hope index rising, but at the same time it operates as a fractured, polarized society suffering from deep existential anxiety about structural collapse.”

A parallel study by the Agam Institute and Tel Aviv University reinforced the warning in even stronger terms. The institute’s report raised a direct red flag: “Israel is not merely a divided society; it is approaching a zone in which political and social polarization could turn into civil conflict.” That same research found that between 66% and 71% of the public believes the gap between the different camps over their vision for the identity of the state is significant to a large extent, a 15% increase since August 2023, the height of the dispute over the judicial overhaul.

The Haredi Draft Flashpoint

No single issue captures the depth of Israel’s internal war quite like the haredi military draft crisis. While 80% of the public supports drafting the ultra Orthodox, haredi resistance remains firm, with 79% of haredim opposing enlistment even when offered special, separate frameworks tailored to their way of life. The resulting standoff has produced some of the most visceral scenes of internal conflict in recent Israeli history, with haredi protesters blocking major highways in June 2026 while soldiers were being buried across the country.

The closeness index from the JPPI report makes the social chasm measurable: in a group by group breakdown, the secular public rates its closeness to haredim at a particularly low 1.81 out of 10, the lowest average closeness score among all population groups. Defense Minister Israel Katz’s June 2026 proposal to freeze arrests of haredi draft evaders for 90 days was meant to defuse the immediate standoff, but critics saw it as capitulation under coalition pressure, the kind of governance many Israelis associate with a system that privileges faction survival over national cohesion.

The Jerusalem Post editorial board described the haredi draft standoff as evidence of a structural breakdown: what was once a political debate has become a civic revolt, with the serving public, religious and secular, right and left, reaching the conclusion that inequality in national service is no longer bearable.

Democracy Under Strain

The civil war anxiety is not only about guns and highways. It encompasses a broader fear about whether Israeli democratic institutions can hold. Sixty one percent of Israelis fear for the country’s democracy, according to a Channel 12 survey, with 66% of respondents saying the internal rift in society is the greatest threat to Israel, far ahead of security threats at 28%.

The study found that more than 70% of both coalition voters and opposition voters believe the conduct of the opposing camp harms Israel’s security, with only 10% of the public completely rejecting that claim. Former Supreme Court President Aharon Barak publicly warned of the potential for civil war, and the JPPI survey measured how Israelis responded: 27% said he was right, and another 33% said he exaggerated somewhat but that the real danger is present. Combined, that is 60% of Israelis who accept that the civil war risk is genuine.

The Global Context: Trump, Putin, and Ukraine

Israel’s internal fractures are developing against a backdrop of global instability that is directly reshaping its security calculations. The Trump and Putin Ukraine dynamic has entered a critical phase just this week, with Trump holding a nearly 90 minute phone call with Putin on July 4, offering to help broker a resolution to the Ukraine war ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara. The long running Russia and Ukraine war appears to have entered a new phase, with Trump holding separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy, while Russia launched its second major attack on Kyiv in under a week.

On July 6, Russia mounted its second major attack on Kyiv in days, killing at least twenty civilians and injuring fifty six others. The escalating tensions between Trump, Putin, and Ukraine carry direct implications for Israel, as Iran’s drone attacks on its neighbors during the recent war resulted in several Arab states turning to Ukraine for air defense support, giving those states a greater stake in Ukraine’s survival than they had before. A destabilized Europe makes a stable Middle East harder to sustain.

What Comes Next

Israel’s elections are constitutionally due by October 2026, but the combination of a fractured coalition, a contentious haredi draft standoff, and an electorate deeply skeptical of its own institutions makes the political path forward deeply uncertain. About half of Israel’s secular Jews, the largest group among Israeli Jews, say they are no longer convinced that Israel is the right and safest place for their children and grandchildren to live, and 30% of Israelis are considering leaving the country.

The JPPI’s annual report is not a prediction of collapse. It is a documented warning from within Israeli society that the bonds holding the state together are under strain they have rarely faced before, and that the external threats surrounding Israel may matter less, for now, than the internal ones.

For deeper analysis of how the Iran ceasefire is reshaping regional alliances and Israeli security calculations, read our full coverage on the US Iran deal and Gulf allies.

External Reference: Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), Annual Israeli Society Index 2026 — https://jppi.org.il

References and Sources

1. The Jerusalem Post, “Israelis fear polarization, internal conflict over Iran threat, survey reveals” 
2. Ynet News, “Study warns Israel’s political and social divide is nearing ‘civil conflict‘” 
3. Times of Israel, “Poll: 61% of Israelis fear for democracy, 66% say internal rift is greatest threat”
4. JPPI Israeli Society Index, March 2026 
5. The Jerusalem Post, “Haredi draft evasion laws are pushing Israel to the breaking point” 
6. CNBC, “Trump’s calls, Ukraine’s strikes and Russia’s barrage on Kyiv put markets on alert” 
7. CNN, “Putin and Trump held ‘businesslike’ 90-minute July 4 call, Moscow says” 
8. Atlantic Council, “What the US Iran deal means for the rest of the Middle East (and beyond)”