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Theo Jorden
By Staff Reporter | May 19, 2026 Donald Trump’s presidency has entered its most politically treacherous stretch since returning to the White House, as a cascade of polls confirms what critics have warned for months: a clear majority of Americans believe his decision to wage war against Iran was wrong and his approval ratings are
By Staff Reporter | May 19, 2026
Donald Trump’s presidency has entered its most politically treacherous stretch since returning to the White House, as a cascade of polls confirms what critics have warned for months: a clear majority of Americans believe his decision to wage war against Iran was wrong and his approval ratings are paying the price in historic fashion.
The numbers are stark. A New York Times/Siena College poll records only 37% approval for Trump’s overall job performance, with 59% disapproving a net rating of minus 22 points, his worst since taking office in January 2025. An AP-NORC survey puts his approval even lower at 33%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll records 36%. On the economy specifically, a CNN poll found his approval has collapsed to an all-time low of 31%.
On the Iran conflict itself, the verdict is more damning still.
Polling across multiple independent outlets reveals a consistent and widening consensus against Donald Trump’s military judgment. A New York Times/Siena College survey found 64% of voters say the decision to go to war with Iran was “wrong,” against just 30% who called it right. A CBS News poll recorded 66% disapproval of Trump’s handling of the Iran situation. Pew Research Center, in a late April survey, found 62% disapprove of Trump’s management of military action against Iran with 45% strongly disapproving.
Perhaps most damaging for a president who built his brand on deal-making and decisive strength: only 24% of Americans believe the military action in Iran has been “worth it,” while 51% say it has not, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
Two out of three Americans surveyed also said they believe Trump has never clearly explained why the country went to war with Iran a communication failure that has compounded the strategic one in the public’s mind. Read the full Pew Research findings at Pew’s detailed analysis of American opinion on the Iran war.
Donald Trump’s political resilience has historically rested on the near-total loyalty of Republican voters. That foundation is showing cracks. While 70–79% of Republicans still back his Iran decision, independents have swung sharply against the war 73% now call it the wrong choice, and 69% disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance, up from 62% in January 2026.
Even within Congress, the wall has begun to fracture. Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine), and Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) broke with Republican leadership to support a Democratic-sponsored War Powers Act resolution aimed at halting the US-Iran war. The motion fell 49-50 in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee a near-miss that sent a loud signal to the White House about the fragility of its congressional support.
Prominent media voices who helped build Donald Trump’s political brand have also distanced themselves. Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, both longtime allies, have publicly questioned his Iran judgment a defection that resonates deeply in the conservative media ecosystem Trump depends on.
The Iran conflict has not stayed abstract for American voters it has shown up at the gas pump and in grocery aisles. National average gas prices rose to a wartime high of $4.39 per gallon, up more than 30 cents in a single week. April 2026 inflation hit 3.8% the sharpest spike in nearly three years driven by oil supply disruptions after Iranian forces moved to restrict Strait of Hormuz transit, a chokepoint carrying one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.
The economic pain has been swift enough that Trump himself floated temporarily suspending the federal gas tax a political concession that signals the depth of the voter backlash his team is trying to contain. Economists have warned the damage will linger, with oil prices projected to remain elevated above pre-war levels throughout 2026.
Compounding the political damage is the human cost. At least 15 US troops have died since the war began on February 28, 2026, including six killed in a drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. More than 520 US personnel have been wounded. Allegations published by The Intercept that the Pentagon may be underreporting casualty figures have added a credibility crisis to an already strained narrative.
A former State Department and National Security Council official captured the bind succinctly: “The White House is left with a set of bad options.” The Lowy Institute’s analysis went further in a widely shared piece titled simply: “How Trump Got Iran Wrong.”
The Washington Post’s polling analysis described Trump’s Iran disapproval numbers as having reached “Iraq- and Vietnam-era levels” a comparison that, for a president who built his foreign policy identity on avoiding endless wars, lands as a particularly brutal historical verdict.
Whether Donald Trump can reverse this trajectory depends entirely on whether the US-Iran war finds a credible exit and whether it comes before the political cost becomes permanent.
How control of the strait became the defining leverage point in the Iran negotiations.
Inside the back-channel diplomacy pushing toward a signed agreement.
The fragile ceasefire is holding even as broader negotiations hit roadblocks.
