Trump’s Top Prediction Market Regulator Vows to Crack Down on Insider Trading

The man Donald Trump appointed to oversee America’s fastest-growing financial frontier stood before Congress on Thursday and issued his starkest warning yet but critic Trump’s Predictions say the agency he leads may have a credibility problem it cannot regulate away.

Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Trump administration’s point man on prediction markets, testified before the House Agriculture Committee on April 16, pledging to bring the full force of federal law against anyone exploiting insider knowledge on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

“I want to be crystal clear to anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets: we will find you, and the full force of the law will come to bear,” Selig told lawmakers.

He said the CFTC currently has “hundreds or thousands of investigations ongoing,” declining to offer a precise figure a vagueness that drew immediate skepticism from legislators already alarmed by a growing body of suspicious trades tied to some of the most consequential U.S. government decisions of the past two years.

The Evidence That Lit the Fuse

The hearing did not happen in a vacuum. It came after months of documented anomalies that have turned prediction markets from a niche financial curiosity into a national security and ethics flashpoint.

CNN Politics reported in March that a single trader had made nearly $1 million on Poly market through dozens of well-timed bets correctly predicting U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran winning a staggering 93% of five-figure wagers on unannounced military operations. The pattern was consistent: large bets placed hours before Israeli strikes in October 2024, hours before U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and hours before the joint U.S.-Israeli surprise attack in February 2026 that triggered the current war.

In January, a separate trader pocketed $400,000 on Poly market by correctly predicting the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro an operation that, at the time, had not been publicly announced. Reuters later found that $529 million had been wagered on Poly market contracts linked specifically to the timing of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran war.

The White House took the threat seriously enough to warn its own staff. In April, Time reported that administration officials were cautioned against trading on prediction platforms a signal that insider activity had moved from theoretical concern to active internal worry.

The Conflict at the Center

The most uncomfortable moment of Thursday’s hearing came when Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern asked Selig point-blank to acknowledge what ethics experts have been saying for months: that the Trump family has a direct financial stake in how these markets are regulated.

Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic adviser to Kalshi and has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. Any CFTC decision that expands, legitimizes, or lightly polices the prediction market industry could, in turn, increase the value of those holdings.

Selig confirmed he was aware of Trump Jr.’s roles then sidestepped the conflict-of-interest question entirely.

A spokesman for Trump Jr. told CNN he does not personally trade on prediction platforms and does not lobby federal officials on either company’s behalf. But critics argue the structure itself is the problem, regardless of whether any individual trade is made.

“By offering bets on wars, elections, and U.S. government actions, prediction markets are a real danger to our democracy and ripe for exploitation by public officials with insider information,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who has introduced multiple bills seeking stricter regulation of the industry.

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An Industry Racing to Get Ahead of the Law

Faced with congressional pressure and regulatory scrutiny, both Polymarket and Kalshi moved preemptively this week to tighten their own rules.

Polymarket announced a new policy clarifying “three core categories of prohibited insider trading conduct,” including bans on trades based on legally confidential information and trades based on tips from those with such obligations. Kalshi unveiled new technological guardrails designed to preemptively block politicians, athletes, and other market-sensitive insiders from trading in relevant contracts.

The CFTC’s enforcement framework rests on Section 6(c)(1) and Rule 180.1 Dodd-Frank provisions modeled after the SEC’s securities fraud statute. The Division of Enforcement announced in March that insider trading in prediction markets would be its top enforcement priority for 2026, with Director David Miller pledging to devote “significant resources” to policing the space.

The Department of Justice has also signaled it will prosecute cases, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins told Congress in February that prediction markets represent a “huge issue” likely involving “overlapping jurisdiction” among agencies.

Pledges and Proof

For now, the crackdown remains a promise. No major insider trading prosecution tied to prediction market activity has been publicly announced. The industry spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying in 2025 alone, with Polymarket going as far as opening a pop-up bar in Washington to court influence.

Selig’s testimony drew bipartisan concern a rare feat in the current political climate. Whether the CFTC can deliver on its “cop on the beat” pledge while its chairman serves at the pleasure of a president whose family profits from the industry’s growth remains the unanswered question at the center of American financial regulation in 2026.